MLB best bets: 4 expert picks for Mets vs. Royals, Rangers vs. Astros and more for 4/12

Mets vs. Royals

Friday, April 12, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Mets -120 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Luis Severino looks like the starting pitcher he was without injuries. The Mets should be happy they picked him up. On Friday, he'll take on Michael Wacha and the Royals.

The Royals absolutely jumped on the Houston Astros early on Thursday, but Severino has looked sharp.

The former Yankees righty has already racked up 13 strikeouts against only two walks. He has made it through five innings in each of his two starts as well. Yes, hard contact may be an issue from time to time, but a well-above-average groundball rate should do the trick against Kansas City.

KC is off to a good start with a 9% walk rate and 113 wRC+ off righties. Having Vinnie Pasquantino back in the lineup helps, and Hunter Renfroe has shown flashes, too.

That said, this is pretty much the exact same lineup as last year, which posted an 86 wRC+ and sub-7% walk rate against righties. Bobby Witt Jr. can only prop this team up so much.

The pitching staff has dramatically improved for Kansas City as well. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Wacha were great additions. That said, Wacha feasted on favorable fortune in 2023 with a 3.22 ERA against a 4.27 xERA. His groundball rate is much higher this year, but he's not improving that much at age 32.

The Mets put up a bucket full of runs on Thursday, and their lineup is better throughout. Look for them to force Wacha out of this game and for Severino to pitch well again.

Take the Mets to -145.

Pick: Mets -120 (Play to -145)

Luis Severino Over 5.5 Ks (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

New York hands the ball to right-hander Luis Severino, and he should be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department. This season, Severino ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in both Chase percentage and K percentage.

You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5 via DraftKings, with the over paying out at +105.

He's just coming off a seven-strikeout performance against Cincinnati — an outing that could be replicated on Friday against Kansas City.

Looking at the Royals' projected lineup for Friday, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% in 2024. Kansas City has been on fire at the plate to start the season, and its underlying metrics have been promising thus far.

However, we must wait and see how likely that is to continue, and this could be a good sell-high spot.

Pick: Luis Severino Over 5.5 Ks (+105 · Play to +100)

Reds vs. White Sox

Friday, April 12, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds Team Total Over 5.5 (DraftKings)

By John Feltman

The Cincinnati Reds have a prime matchup to get back in the win column on Friday evening. Their offense has been inconsistent through the first couple of weeks, but now they get a tasty matchup against right-hander Chris Flexen.

I'm not quite sure how Flexen is still in the big leagues at this point, as he has yet to show any flashes of competence over the last few seasons. He enters the matchup averaging an abysmal six strikeouts per nine innings and three walks per nine innings since the 2021 season.

The wind projection is 15 mph blowing out to right field, which makes matters worse for Flexen. He tends to keep the ball in the air, so the Reds' boppers have an excellent chance of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Flexen doesn't have much experience against Cincy, but I expect a bounce-back effort from the Big Red Machine after a washout yesterday.

Pick: Reds Team Total Over 5.5 (+105)

Rangers vs. Astros

Friday, April 12, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Dane Dunning Under 4.5 Ks (FanDuel)

By Cody Goggin

Through two starts this season, Dane Dunning already has 14 strikeouts. His 26.4% strikeout rate is the best mark in his career, albeit in a small sample size. This is well above his career 21% mark, and it's particularly impressive considering Dunning’s strikeout rate has decreased every single year of his career.

So, did he change something, or has this been a case of small sample size luck? I’m inclined to lean toward the latter in this case.

Dunning’s Stuff+ sits at a paltry 89, which ranks 103rd out of 123 pitchers with 10-plus innings pitched this season. In this same group, he ranks 118th in Location+ and 103rd in Pitching+.

Despite the decent ERA (4.15) and strong strikeout numbers, Dunning’s xERA comes in at 6.86 with a FIP of 6.14.

He has walked seven batters in these 13 innings, representing a career-high walk rate of 13.2%. His average exit velocity ranks in the bottom 4% of the league, and his hard-hit percentage ranks in the bottom 7%. He also has a strand rate of 84.7%, which is bound to regress at some point.

Dunning will be facing an Astros team that has the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball.

His last start also came against Houston, and he managed to strike out seven while allowing three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings pitched. However, I think after seeing him on April 7, Houston will have more success against Dunning.

This isn’t a pitcher who possesses elite stuff, and he's been lucky in terms of batted-ball outcomes this season. When this comes back the other way, I don’t want to be on the other end.

I’ll be taking Dunning to go under 4.5 strikeouts. This is priced at +106, as of writing, but my model would make it -269, representing a huge 22% edge. This edge may be a bit exaggerated, but I would still take him under this number to -130.

Pick: Dane Dunning Under 4.5 Ks (+106 · Play to -130)