Vikings GM balances risk and reward to calculate potential move up to draft a quarterback

The Minnesota Vikings showed their cards moving up from 42 to 23 and giving up a 2025 second-round pick in the process. With his analytics-based approach, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah probably wouldn't make such a drastic move if it wasn't for a quarterback.

Now, he has the option to package picks 11 and 23 and move into the top 10 to take a passer. But that's a tough balance, though, because Adofo-Mensah doesn't know who will be available at each spot. That's what he's planning now.

On Thursday, the Vikings top executive said that he likes several prospects, but the value of each depends on where they can get drafted.

"There's multiple guys that we're in love with just on an outright basis, but there's also other guys that we're in love with given what -- if we get them at a certain value -- what they'd also be able to come with," Adofo-Mensah said. "As I talked about earlier skill set wise, if you're talking about the ability to overcome context, well, if the guy has less ability but we have assets to go get somebody that's not going to put him in that situation, those things add up too."

That's an interesting approach. For example, Drake Maye is the second quarterback on the consensus big board. Theoretically, the Vikings could be more inclined to pay a premium to get him. If the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots are not willing to move down, though, it could still make sense to take a quarterback, but keeping more capital to build a stronger environment around the young player.

Risk and reward

It's rare to see an NFL team allowing a top half quarterback leave in free agency, just like the Vikings did with Kirk Cousins. But with his roster-building philosophy, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah puts capital and ability into perspective to create a favorable situation.

If Cousins is making $45 million per year with the Atlanta Falcons, and a rookie would make less than $10 million for at least three seasons (maybe five), that difference allows the Vikings to put together a stronger offense — and the last six seasons showed that Cousins' ability wasn't being enough to get the Vikings where their GM wants to be.

"Just because something is risky doesn't mean you have to stay away from it," Adofo-Mensah added. "It's something that is hard to grasp, but if you grasp it, you know what the rewards are, right? And that's something you have to weigh and measure. You can look at countless examples of other teams who've made decisions, but maybe the decision you thought was going to be the decision, it was a different decision that ended up being right and the outcomes were good."

With all these considerations, the Vikings still have multiple options. They can execute a drastic trade up to 2 or 3 to select the best non-Caleb Williams prospect, a slight move up to get JJ McCarthy, or stay put at 11 and 23 to get a quarterback from the next tier.

"If you look at our offseason in a sense, it's kind of the go-between quarterback assets and everything else," the GM said. "Our draft will follow the same suit. I don't think you want to necessarily go take these huge swings and not be able to build a team around them. You'll be in a different, but still not in the place you want to be. So, I think that's kind of how we look at that decision."

The Vikings have a solid offensive situation with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw and a good playcaller in head coach Kevin O'Connell. Now, it's time to find the most valuable piece — and understand how valuable it can be.